Why the U.S. should follow China in issuing 50-year bonds
In the next 50 years, rates will likely go much higher
3 min read- China issued 50-year government bonds, prompting questions about U.S. debt strategy.
- Treasury's focus on shorter-term debt may increase borrowing costs long-term.
- Long-term bonds offer fixed-income investors potential total return gains.
- Pension funds could benefit from long-maturity bonds over alternative assets.
Brooke’s note: When I saw an item in the Wall Street Journal at the end of November about China issuing 50-year bonds, I fired a note to Don Peters . He’s the one person I knew who would have an authoritative opinion on the subject. Peters is a student of long-term bonds who specializes in investing in them. He has generously provided these thoughts.
Last month China sold its first 50-year government bonds, joining just a few other nations who have also issued such lengths of bonds, France being another.
Earlier this year, Secretary of the Treasury Geithner announced that he felt it was necessary that the U.S. extend the average maturity of its debt, which had reached a twenty-six year low of four years and one month.
Of course to do so under today’s conditions will increase the average cost to carry, which has been dropping due to the large issuance of treasury bills whose interest cost is close to zero. To this point the treasury has not chosen to go the 50-year route, but rather has increased the issuance of 10 and 30-year securities. Why not go with 50-years treasuries?
Are negative yields for US bonds on the horizon?
It is not our purpose to examine the pros and cons from the government’s standpoint. However, it is reasonable to assume that at some point in the next fifty years interest rates will be higher, maybe much higher.
Quite cheap
That likely being the case, 4-5% now might be quite cheap from their standpoint. On the other hand, to do so under present circumstances might seem to be an act of desperation, signaling the government’s fear of being unable to issue debt over the next several years.
Story Timeline
After all, many countries are in serious economic trouble. Sovereign Greek debt was just recently downgraded. Others such as Spain and/or Italy seem sure to follow along the same path in our opinion. Those who believe the debt bubble is behind us are sadly mistaken.
From the standpoint of a fixed income investor who believes in using government bonds as a total return asset, a 50-year U.S. government bond would be to die for. Let’s look inside the bond value tables to see why:
Telling chart
One might say that the risk of another twenty years added to the current longest maturity bond (the 30-year) is not worth a total return of only 12.69% (49.51-35.82); however, the increase is approximately 35% (12.69/36.82).
Always remember that Herb Stein (former chief economic advisor for Richard Nixon and the father of Ben) said he did not become a good economist until he found out that the difference between 1% and 2% was not 1%, but 100%.
Uninviting
As an aside, those who believe in buy-and-hold and investing-for-yield-only might find this long maturity uninviting. However, would not most of the pension fund managers of today be better off if they had used such an instrument as opposed to the alternative asset classes that were intended to enhance return?
The author of this article, Don Peters, is a principal of Central Plains Advisors in Wichita, Kan. See his profile in our “About Us” section.
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