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How interest rates have rolled since the first Thanksgiving and why the 'new normal' under Yellen seems destined to last

The Pilgrims probably paid 12-18% to finance their new lives (lucky for us they took the risk)

Author Stephen J. Huxley, Guest Columnist November 28, 2013 at 4:53 AM
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Steve Huxley: Today, over 4,000 bond funds exist, meaning 97% of all bond fund managers have been enjoying an environment of terrific total returns buoyed by falling rates over the past 30 years.

Stephen Huxley

Elmer Rich III

Elmer Rich III

November 29, 2011 — 4:58 PM

“We are easily convinced by data.” Few questions:

- Does it make sense to inflation adjust the rates?

- Bet there are stats going back to Greek and Roman times and perhaps earlier.

- So is it fair to say that as demand for bonds has risen the rates have gone down, i.e., as more funds are opened rates drop? That makes sense since supply is not constrained and the rate needed to attract funds drops with demand.

- So is the hyper-demand really a reaction against perceived uncertainty (not “risk”) in other asset classes?

- Does this suggest zero inflation?

Saw an interesting roller coaster video done by Gary Shilling of historical housing prices and inflation — they seem highly corrleated

Dave Waluk

Dave Waluk

December 2, 2013 — 9:46 PM

Steve, thanks for the perspective – it’s always interesting to place our current market focus within the context of longer term timelines. Of note is that two outliers, 210 year highs and lows, both occurred within the past 30 years.



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